Undermining the AstraZeneca jab is a dangerous act of political folly

It has been a disquieting week for those concerned about the lifting of Covid restrictions. Numbers of cases and deaths may be declining but the news that the AstraZeneca vaccine has been linked to cases of rare blood clots and has been suspended for use in younger people in Germany and the Netherlands is a disturbing development. The AstraZeneca jab is the prime hope we have of clearing Britain of this disease and is now, once again, under hostile scrutiny. Not for the first time, this vaccine has become enmeshed in geopolitics and its usefulness questioned. It is a grim story.

In this case, fears have been raised that the vaccine may be linked to seven deaths among a total of 30 rare blood-clotting cases that arose after administration of the vaccine. That is of obvious concern, but a quick look at the arithmetic puts those fears into perspective. Those 30 cases occurred among 18 million recipients of the AstraZeneca jab, a risk of less than one in 500,000. Now run this simple thought experiment and ask what would happen if we stopped the vaccination of 500,000 middle-aged people, say, for a month? About 85 would be hospitalised and about five would die from Covid, it is estimated. Those figures reveal the power of vaccinations that have already prevented more than 6,000 Covid deaths in the UK, with tens of thousands of lives likely to be saved this year.

Crucially, the chances of getting a clot through infection with Covid are several orders of magnitude more likely

Nor is it clear a causal link exists between the AstraZeneca vaccine and clots (of which most are a variety called cerebral sinus venous thrombosis, CSVT). However, even if such a connection exists, we should note that among Covid’s many impacts, clotting events are included. Crucially, the chances of getting a clot through infection with the Covid virus are several orders of magnitude more likely than are the chances of getting a clot from the vaccine. Hence the robust defence of the AstraZeneca vaccine by most UK doctors and scientists.

Nevertheless, swaths of Europe continue to restrict its use at a time when many nations are suffering third waves of Covid-19 cases and have said they are desperate for vaccine supplies. It is a baffling response. Consider Germany. It initially decided not to give the AstraZeneca vaccine to elderly people because of safety fears. Then it approved it for all its citizens. And then Germany changed its mind again last week and plumped for giving it only to the elderly and to refuse its use for younger people.

Such vacillation is absurd and harmful. Public confidence in vaccines will be crucial in extricating the world from its Covid nightmare. The signals sent by Germany – and the Netherlands and many other European nations – are worrying. In the UK, it has triggered fears among senior public health officials that growing numbers of younger people, particularly women who have raised risks of developing these blood clots, may shun the AstraZeneca jab. Uptake of Covid jab remains high in UK despite blood clot fears.

It is the one approved vaccine that can be easily shipped and does not need complicated refrigeration. But if its safety is constantly undermined by individual national regulators across Europe, developing countries will be hesitant to use it. Why should they accept a vaccine at which western society turns up its nose?

Just why the AstraZeneca vaccine has been subject to constant undermining is hard to determine. Kate Bingham, who led Britain’s highly successful Vaccine Taskforce, has described the UK-Swedish company as “heroes” for the way it stepped up to provide a safe, effective, easily deployed vaccine, first developed at Oxford University, and indicated her regret that it has been “caught up in geopolitics”. Certainly, it is strange that the one vaccine to be sold at cost price, and which has eschewed the typical high-pricing plans of big pharma, is the one that has been subjected to the greatest vilification.

The world needs – as a matter of urgency – more than 11bn doses of vaccine to provide the 5.8 billion adults on our planet with double jabs that will free humanity from Covid-19, with further doses needed in future to counter virus variants. To date, more than 600m doses have been administered. The 3bn doses that have been promised by AstraZeneca this year will make a huge difference in protecting humanity. Yet it is being shunned for questionable motives.

As the slogan goes: nobody is safe until everyone is safe. It’s trite but right

It might be tempting to indulge in a bout of vaccine schadenfreude. Once derided for its initial Covid responses – late lockdowns, poor test-and-trace programmes – the UK has triumphed with its vaccine rollout programme while the EU has floundered. But as Covid continues to spread across Europe, Britain’s borders will have to remain closed. As the slogan goes: nobody is safe until everyone is safe. It’s trite but right and that is why we need all the vaccines we can get.

Forty years ago, when the Aids zoonotic pandemic first appeared, it took scientists four years to develop a test that could determine if people were infected, a crucial first step if you want to track and contain a disease. With Covid-19, scientists developed a test in less than a month, while vaccines were approved within a year. Dramatic scientific improvements have made it possible to survive this pandemic, and not just in medicine. Without Zoom calls, PCR testing, the internet and genome sequencing, our global lockdown would have been impossible.

The trouble is that science and technology on their own are inadequate for tackling catastrophes such as Covid-19. The world also needs politicians, health services and civil services that can use these gifts with skill and wisdom. Supplies of these attributes have been inconsistent in most western countries. Britain has done well with its current massive, rapid vaccine rollout but that is no guarantee it will not return to the chaos of last year’s Covid responses. We are not yet out of trouble.

The Observer

A scientist tests antibody responses to the AstraZeneca vaccine in Oxford, England. Photograph: David Levene

Wales roadmap announced with potential reopening for indoor hospitality before end of May

The First Minister gave dates for the return of extended households - allowing two households to meet and have contact indoors - as well as remaining holiday accommodation.

Community centres and outdoor weddings with limited numbers have also been given a date to resume - but all of this is subject to Covid rates.

On Wednesday evening, Mark Drakeford laid out potential reopening dates for outdoor hospitality, gyms and organised outdoor activities for groups of up to 30 people.

The announcement comes as Wales moves fully into alert level three, which means the Covid situation is still high risk.

Mr Drakeford said the "indicative dates" have been revealed to allow sectors time to plan and prepare.

He clarified that final decisions on their reopening will be made nearer the time, subject to the public health situation.

Mr Drakeford said: "Thanks to a real team effort across Wales, coronavirus cases remain stable, and the vaccination programme continues apace.

"As a result, the Welsh Government has the headroom to continue its careful, step-by-step approach to relaxing restrictions.

"The review we have concluded this week, means we can continue with our programme of further re-opening of the economy and loosening the restrictions in place."

Should conditions remain favourable, certain sectors will be allowed to reopen and resume services from the following dates.

Key dates in Welsh Government roadmap out of lockdown

• 12 April: Schools, shops and travel

Providing Covid rates remain low, from 12 April there will be a full return of face-to-face learning in schools and post-16 learners.

Universities will open for blended face-to-face and online learning.

All remaining shops can reopen, completing the phased reopening of non-essential retail, as well as close-contact services.

The ban on non-essential travel in or out of Wales will also be lifted, however restrictions on non-essential travel to countries outside the 'common travel area' will remain in place.

Viewing at wedding venues can also resume by appointment, and outdoor canvassing can begin ahead of the Senedd Election in May.

On Tuesday, large groups of people gathered outside the Senedd, leading to arrests after an incident of violent disorder.

Asked if it would be safer to open pubs sooner to curb outdoor drinking, Mark Drakeford said the actions of a minority are not a good enough reason to reopen hospitality now.

He said: ''The answer to the scenes that we saw outside the Senedd is to make it clear that to people that that is not acceptable.

''It's not to find ways in which we can indulge people who have shown such a basic disregard for the law that keeps themselves and others safe.

• Key dates in Welsh Government roadmap out of lockdowntravel

• 26 April: Outdoor hospitality and attractions

From 26 April, pubs, cafes and restaurants can resume outdoor services.

Mark Drakeford said that when hospitality businesses do reopen, there will not be any curfew or alcohol ban as seen previously.

Outdoor attractions, such as funfairs and theme parks, will also be allowed to reopen.

• 3 May: Organised outdoor activities and weddings

As the summer approaches, organised outdoor activities for up to 30 people will be allowed to take place from 3 May, and wedding receptions limited to 30 people can also resume.

• 10 May: Gyms and extended households

Gyms, leisure centres and fitness facilities will be allowed to reopen from 10 May, but this will be limited to individual or one-to-one personal training - not group classes.

Extended households will also resume - allowing two households to meet indoors.

• 17 May: Children's indoor activities and community centres

At the May 13 review, Welsh Government will confirm if children's indoor activities and community centres can reopen on May 17.

• Late May: Indoor hospitality and holiday accommodation

On 13 May, the Welsh Government will consider allowing indoor hospitality to reopen after 17 May but before the end of that month - in time for the Spring bank holiday.

It will also consider reopening the remaining visitor accommodation in late May. Self-contained accommodation providers were allowed to welcome back guests earlier this month.

The resumption of organised indoor activities for up to 15 adults will also be considered.

Mr Drakeford also said that in May, the government will start trialling pilot events, such as arts or sports events, with crowds of up to 1,000 people.

"Later on into the summer, provided things remain with the virus suppressed as it is today, then we will be able to do more to allow more people back into more events of that sort."

Responding to the news, Plaid Cymru Leader Adam Price called for more money to support the hospitality sector ahead of opening.

He said, “The Labour Government must explain why it has taken them so long to provide businesses with greater certainty on when they can expect to reopen. Having been closed for so long, the least they deserve is more time to prepare.

“While this news offers hospitality a glimmer of hope, it will be a while yet before the sector can fully re-open. Labour has a duty to provide extra financial support to help those businesses to get back on their feet - increasing the pot of cash that’s available to businesses. Time and again, hard-working Welsh businesses that form the backbone of our economy have been let down and left behind by this Labour government - the very least they can do is to dig deep and support key sectors of the Welsh economy.

“Meanwhile, gyms should be able to safely re-open now – not least to help with people’s wellbeing and mental health which has suffered so much during the last few months.''

On Wednesday, the Welsh Conservatives called for gyms to reopen to benefit people's mental health.

Welsh Conservative Senedd leader, Andrew RT Davies said, “Welsh Conservatives believe gyms across Wales should be reopened for the good of people’s mental and physical well-being.

“Two months ago, Labour said it would be a priority when it came to easing restrictions, but it’s been another broken promise from ministers. This should be corrected."

“And given the progress we’ve made on case rates and vaccination, we also believe consideration should be afforded to the reopening of outdoor hospitality in Wales.

“Labour ministers have lifted travel restrictions, but it’s created other issues such as a lack of public toilets, littering and anti-social behaviour.

“Some of the scenes over recent days have been concerning and ministers should see licensed, regulated businesses as part of the solution, instead of the problem.

“Welsh Conservatives have provided a detailed roadmap for families, workers and businesses across Wales and Labour should listen to our calls and do the same.”

Responding to the news that Wales will soon move into a Level 3 status, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds said, “This is good news. We are cautiously optimistic about the future, especially given the positive news regarding vaccine roll out.

"Small businesses especially in the hospitality industry have been hit hard by this closure and they will be relieved that many of them can start trading again.

Source: ITV Wales

Biden tells migrants to stay put. Central Americans hear a different message

LA TÉCNICA, GUATEMALA (Reuters) - Maritza Hernández arrived at this remote Guatemalan village exhausted, with two young kids in tow and more than a thousand miles left to travel. She was motivated by a simple - if not entirely accurate - story.

“I heard news they are letting children in,” said Hernández, explaining she planned to cross the U.S. border in Texas and seek asylum.

The number of immigrant families apprehended by U.S. agents along the southern border nearly tripled in February from a month earlier to about 19,000 people. Hunger and poverty are spurring their flight. So is disinformation that has rocketed across social media and by word of mouth that the U.S. border is now wide open.

Reuters interviewed nearly two dozen migrants and more than a dozen people identifying themselves as smugglers, and examined hundreds of posts in closed Facebook groups where these “coyotes” advertise their services. The review revealed pervasive myths about immigration policy changes under U.S. President Joe Biden.

“There’s 100 days of free passage across the border,” a Guatemalan smuggler told Reuters.

The truth is much more complex.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continues to enforce a policy, implemented by former President Donald Trump one year ago, of returning most southern-border crossers to Mexico. About 70,000 people, or 72% of such migrants - mostly single adults - were rapidly deported in February alone, according to CBP data. Some of those people were likely repeat crossers as the recidivism rate has climbed in the past year, according to U.S. officials.

“Don’t come over,” Biden said in a March 16 interview with ABC News when asked to articulate his message to hopefuls. “Don’t leave your town or city or community.”

Still, it’s true that more migrants - mainly children and families - have been allowed to enter the United States in the early days of his administration than in the final days of Trump’s. In February, more than half of the family members caught with children at the border were not expelled. Many have been released from CBP custody into the United States as they await asylum hearings.

Their success has supercharged migrant and smuggler communication channels, with many now urging travelers to head north before the door slams shut, said Andrew Seele, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan Washington-based think tank.

“Smugglers can definitely exaggerate things and make up information, but they can’t completely sell what doesn’t exist,” Seele said.

Biden aide Roberta Jacobson, the White House’s southern border coordinator, said the administration is now more aggressively discouraging migration.

Since January, the State Department has placed more than 28,000 radio ads in Spanish, Portuguese and six indigenous languages on 133 stations in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Brazil, and it has worked with Facebook and Instagram to create advertisements to dissuade migrants, according to the department and the White House.

Whether it works remains to be seen. Trump’s anti-immigration message was loud and clear. Yet on his watch in February 2019, U.S. border agents encountered more than 40,000 people traveling in family groups, about twice as many as the Biden administration saw last month, according to CBP figures.

Honduran migrant families trying to reach the U.S. cross the Usumacinta river on a boat.

SMUGGLER TRADE THRIVING

The business of moving migrants is booming in the hamlet of La Técnica, deep in a Guatemalan rainforest, where Hernández and her two children stopped to rest.

In early March, Reuters witnessed motorized canoes whisking hundreds of U.S.-bound migrants across the Usumacinta River to the area’s unguarded border with Mexico.

Slideshow ( 4 images )

Carlos, a smuggler who gave only his first name, chatted by phone with a colleague in the Mayan language Q’eqchi’ about an impending arrival. This transportation crossroads is also an information hub where news - both true and fake - spreads rapidly.

“Supposedly the president is letting children in,” Carlos said of Biden.

Carlos had it partly right. Biden, in a shift from the previous administration, said he would not turn away “unaccompanied minors” - kids crossing the border without parents or legal guardians. These children can now enter the United States to pursue asylum claims, in accordance with U.S. law.

The new administration has done the same for some migrant families along a limited, 230-mile stretch of the border between Texas and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas. That shift came in early February after Tamaulipas refused to continue allowing U.S. border officials to expel back into the state Central American families with children under the age of six. Biden has said his team is working to convince Mexico to take more of those families back.

Much of this nuance has been lost in Central America, a region desperate for an escape valve. Migrants are being driven by gang violence and poverty that has been exacerbated by job losses from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The situation is particularly dire in Honduras, where hurricanes Eta and Iota last November destroyed tens of thousands of homes. Nearly a third of the country’s population is now beset by a worsening hunger crisis, according to a government report published in February.

Hernández, who hails from the Honduran coastal state of Colón, said the storms wiped out the family’s chickens and inundated the farm fields where her husband worked. In February, she defied her spouse and set off for Texas with her two children, encouraged by news of other families successfully crossing the border.

The U.S. government radio spots warn migrants against such a journey. In an ad currently broadcast in Honduras, a man named “Jorge” advises “Rosita” that she could be “assaulted, kidnapped, abandoned or infected with coronavirus” - and would likely be detained or deported if she reached the United States.

But other U.S.-based sources are fueling the myth of an open border. Texas-based citizen journalist Luis Rodriguez, who was born in Honduras, has posted several videos for his 400,000 Facebook followers encouraging migrant families to capitalize.

“How long will this last? Well, no one knows,” he said in a March 7 video.

Rodriguez did not respond to requests for comment.

Some high-profile Republicans, too, are sending the message via prominent news outlets that crossing is easy. In a March 21 interview on “Fox News Sunday,” U.S. Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said “the border right now is wide open.”

Cotton repeated the exaggeration when contacted by Reuters.

SOME LUCKY, OTHERS NOT

Back in La Técnica, migrant Enrique Gallean shouted a warning to families gathered on the dock as he stepped off one of the rare boats bearing migrants back into Guatemala.

“They’re not letting children in!” he said.

Clutching his 8-year-old son’s hand, the Honduran native told Reuters he had recently crossed the U.S. border near Roma, Texas, and surrendered himself to CBP in the hopes of being allowed to pursue asylum. Instead, Gallean said, they were rapidly expelled to Mexico.

It was much the same for Hector Ruiz. A resident of El Salvador, he and his wife and three young children passed through La Técnica in early March with high hopes. He said he paid $20,000 to smugglers to get his spouse and kids to the Texas border to claim asylum. Ruiz, who had a previous deportation order, didn’t intend to cross, but he accompanied his family much of the way to ensure their safety.

Just over a week later, Ruiz told Reuters his wife and children had been expelled to Mexico.

“We went because we heard the news that there were 100 days of free passage!” Ruiz exclaimed by telephone. “Now we’re screwed.”

Hernández and her two children were luckier. She said that on March 19 her family turned themselves in to CBP in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, only to be released two days later to start the journey to Maryland, where her mother resides.

“We’re free!” she told Reuters by phone.

The news organization could not determine why the three were admitted while other families were not. CBP said it could not comment on the case due to security and privacy reasons.

Hernández’s WhatsApp profile now features a photo of her, the children and their grandmother beaming with happiness following their reunion. That portrait of success travels with each message she sends to friends and family back in Honduras.

Source: Reuters