New investment in fossil fuel projects must end if governments want to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, warned the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday in a special report designed to inform COP26 negotiators meeting in Glasgow, UK, in November.
The Paris-based think tank developed a roadmap to net zero emissions by 2050, including 400 milestones. Halting fresh exploitation and development of "new oil and gas fields" is a fundamental one. Radical change is needed, according to the IEA, in the world's approach to fossil fuels, demand for which needs to sharply decrease and be replaced by rapid and vast ramping up of renewable energy investment and capacity.
"The pathway to net zero is narrow but still achievable. If we want to reach net zero by 2050 we do not need any more investments in new oil, gas and coal projects," the IEA's Executive Director Fatih Birol told Reuters. "It is up to investors to choose whatever portfolio they prefer but there are risks and rewards," he added, saying that achieving the net zero emissions goal is "perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced."
Following the path designed by the IEA, fossil fuels should cover only around a fifth of energy supply by 2050, down from almost four-fifths currently. According to the IEA's roadmap, sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars would have to end by 2035.
Over the past five years, global investment in fossil fuels has accounted on average for a total $575 billion. According to the IEA, this number should fall to $110 billion by 2050, with fossil fuel investment restricted to maintaining production at existing oil and natural gas fields.
Investment in renewable, green energy will need to rise from $2 trillion to $5 trillion a year by 2030. And every month from that year, 10 industrial plants will need to be fitted with carbon capture technology, three new hydrogen-based industrial plants will need to be built and 2 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity for green hydrogen production needs to be added at industrial sites, the report said. The IEA's roadmap relies not only on existing technology to reduce emissions by 2050, but also on "technologies that are currently only in demonstration or prototype phase," such as direct air carbon capture and green hydrogen. Some have criticized this approach. "Any role of future technologies should be to replace fossil fuels, not justify their use," Teresa Anderson, climate policy coordinator at ActionAid International, told AFP. "Given all the uncertainties and risks around long-shot technologies and land availability for bioenergy, the IEA would do better to focus on bringing emissions down to real zero, rather than using 'net' zero accounting to pander to the fossil fuel industry's fears of losing profits." Even if all net zero pledges were to be met on time and in full, there will still be 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide worldwide in 2050 – which would lead to a rise in temperature of around 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the IEA.
Source: CGTN Europe | Reuters AFP
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